3 citations · 7 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Shot Success in Football
Edward Wheatcroft, Ewelina Sienkiewicz
Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus p…
Assessing the Significance of Model Selection in Ecology
Edward Wheatcroft
Model Selection is a key part of many ecological studies, with Akaike's Information Criterion the most commonly used technique. Typically, a number of candidate models are defined…
Comparing district heating options under uncertainty using stochastic ordering
Victoria Volodina, Edward Wheatcroft, Henry Wynn
District heating is a network of pipes through which heat is delivered from a centralised source. It is expected to play an important role in the decarbonisation of the energy sect…
Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics
Edward Wheatcroft
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the m…
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: The case against the Ranked Probability Score
Edward Wheatcroft
A scoring rule is a function of a probabilistic forecast and a corresponding outcome that is used to evaluate forecast performance. A wide range of scoring rules have been defined…