584 citations · 1.1k across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
14 papers
Synthetic supply networks
Galvin Ng, Luca Mungo, Damien Bertrand +1
A good representation of the population of firms and households is essential for large-scale economic models. While there exist good methods to create synthetic populations of hous…
Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model
Samuel Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, Joel Dyer +6
In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative models for time series foreca…
Reconstructing supply networks
Luca Mungo, Alexandra Brintrup, Diego Garlaschelli +1
Network reconstruction is a well-developed sub-field of network science, but it has only recently been applied to production networks, where nodes are firms and edges represent cus…
Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?
Anton Pichler, Marco Pangallo, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona +2
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-…
Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective
R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler +2
We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and in…
The rise of science in low-carbon energy technologies
Kerstin Hötte, Anton Pichler, François Lafond
Successfully combating climate change will require substantial technological improvements in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies (LCETs), but designing efficient allocation of R\&D budg…
Technological interdependencies predict innovation dynamics
Anton Pichler, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer
We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents fro…
Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution
Jangho Yang, Torsten Heinrich, Julian Winkler +3
It is well-known that value added per worker is extremely heterogeneous among firms, but relatively little has been done to characterize this heterogeneity more precisely. Here we…
Automation and occupational mobility: A data-driven network model
R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Mariano Beguerisse-Díaz +2
The potential impact of automation on the labor market is a topic that has generated significant interest and concern amongst scholars, policymakers, and the broader public. A numb…
Early identification of important patents through network centrality
Manuel Sebastian Mariani, Matus Medo, François Lafond
One of the most challenging problems in technological forecasting is to identify as early as possible those technologies that have the potential to lead to radical changes in our s…
Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves
Rupert Way, François Lafond, Fabrizio Lillo +2
We consider how to optimally allocate investments in a portfolio of competing technologies using the standard mean-variance framework of portfolio theory. We assume that technologi…
How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts
François Lafond, Aimee Gotway Bailey, Jan David Bakker +4
Experience curves are widely used to predict the cost benefits of increasing the deployment of a technology. But how good are such forecasts? Can one predict their accuracy a prior…
Long-run dynamics of the U.S. patent classification system
Francois Lafond, Daniel Kim
Almost by definition, radical innovations create a need to revise existing classification systems. In this paper, we argue that classification system changes and patent reclassific…
How predictable is technological progress?
J. Doyne Farmer, Francois Lafond
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the techno…