323 citations · 488 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 1 filter
Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules
Aaron Gerding, Nicholas G. Reich, Benjamin Rogers +1
Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, t…
Comparison of Combination Methods to Create Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Influenza in the U.S
Nutcha Wattanachit, Evan L. Ray, Thomas C. McAndrew +1
The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to info…
The Zoltar forecast archive: a tool to facilitate standardization and storage of interdisciplinary prediction research
Nicholas G Reich, Matthew Cornell, Evan L Ray +2
Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions th…
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
Johannes Bracher, Evan L. Ray, Tilmann Gneiting +1
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive interva…