323 citations · 488 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers
Beyond forecast leaderboards: Measuring individual model importance based on contribution to ensemble accuracy
Minsu Kim, Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich
Ensemble forecasts often outperform forecasts from individual standalone models, and have been used to support decision-making and policy planning in various fields. As collaborati…
Flusion: Integrating multiple data sources for accurate influenza predictions
Evan L. Ray, Yijin Wang, Russell D. Wolfinger +1
Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabili…
Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules
Aaron Gerding, Nicholas G. Reich, Benjamin Rogers +1
Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, t…
Comparison of Combination Methods to Create Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Influenza in the U.S
Nutcha Wattanachit, Evan L. Ray, Thomas C. McAndrew +1
The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to info…
Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States
Evan L. Ray, Logan C. Brooks, Jacob Bien +12
The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensembl…
The Zoltar forecast archive: a tool to facilitate standardization and storage of interdisciplinary prediction research
Nicholas G Reich, Matthew Cornell, Evan L Ray +2
Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions th…
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
Johannes Bracher, Evan L. Ray, Tilmann Gneiting +1
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive interva…
Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles
Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission.…