430 citations · 768 across the 15 of their papers we have counts for
12 papers · 1 filter
Scaling Laws of Motion Forecasting and Planning -- Technical Report
Mustafa Baniodeh, Kratarth Goel, Scott Ettinger +14
We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving…
A Simple Approach to Improve Single-Model Deep Uncertainty via Distance-Awareness
Jeremiah Zhe Liu, Shreyas Padhy, Jie Ren +7
Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distrib…
Sparse MoEs meet Efficient Ensembles
James Urquhart Allingham, Florian Wenzel, Zelda E Mariet +10
Machine learning models based on the aggregated outputs of submodels, either at the activation or prediction levels, often exhibit strong performance compared to individual models.…
Uncertainty Baselines: Benchmarks for Uncertainty & Robustness in Deep Learning
Zachary Nado, Neil Band, Mark Collier +23
High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ab…
Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning
Alexander D'Amour, Katherine Heller, Dan Moldovan +37
ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline i…
Combining Ensembles and Data Augmentation can Harm your Calibration
Yeming Wen, Ghassen Jerfel, Rafael Muller +4
Ensemble methods which average over multiple neural network predictions are a simple approach to improve a model's calibration and robustness. Similarly, data augmentation techniqu…
Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors
Michael W. Dusenberry, Ghassen Jerfel, Yeming Wen +5
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) demonstrate promising success in improving the robustness and uncertainty quantification of modern deep learning. However, they generally struggle w…
Analyzing the Role of Model Uncertainty for Electronic Health Records
Michael W. Dusenberry, Dustin Tran, Edward Choi +5
In medicine, both ethical and monetary costs of incorrect predictions can be significant, and the complexity of the problems often necessitates increasingly complex models. Recent…
AdaNet: A Scalable and Flexible Framework for Automatically Learning Ensembles
Charles Weill, Javier Gonzalvo, Vitaly Kuznetsov +9
AdaNet is a lightweight TensorFlow-based (Abadi et al., 2015) framework for automatically learning high-quality ensembles with minimal expert intervention. Our framework is inspire…
Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning
Jeremy Nixon, Mike Dusenberry, Ghassen Jerfel +4
Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of…
Reconciling meta-learning and continual learning with online mixtures of tasks
Ghassen Jerfel, Erin Grant, Thomas L. Griffiths +1
Learning-to-learn or meta-learning leverages data-driven inductive bias to increase the efficiency of learning on a novel task. This approach encounters difficulty when transfer is…
Dynamic Collaborative Filtering with Compound Poisson Factorization
Ghassen Jerfel, Mehmet E. Basbug, Barbara E. Engelhardt
Model-based collaborative filtering analyzes user-item interactions to infer latent factors that represent user preferences and item characteristics in order to predict future inte…