323 citations · 351 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
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stat.ME2019★ 2 cited
A new INARMA(1, 1) model with Poisson marginals
Johannes Bracher
We suggest an INARMA(1, 1) model with Poisson marginals which extends the INAR(1) in a similar way as the INGARCH(1, 1) does for the INARCH(1) model. The new model is equivalent to…
stat.AP2019★ 19 cited
An extended note on the multibin logarithmic score used in the FluSight competitions
Johannes Bracher
In recent years the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have organized FluSight influenza forecasting competitions. To evaluate the participants' forecasts a multibin…
stat.AP2019★ 1 cited
Endemic-epidemic models with discrete-time serial interval distributions for infectious disease prediction
Johannes Bracher, Leonhard Held
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregress…