33 citations · 92 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Using a rare event sampling technique to quantify extreme El Niño event statistics
Sarah Packman, Justin Finkel, Dorian S. Abbot +1
Extreme El Niño events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them…
Using Explainable AI and Transfer Learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data
Huan Zhang, Justin Finkel, Dorian S. Abbot +2
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however,…
Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data
John Strahan, Justin Finkel, Aaron R. Dinner +1
Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simula…
Revealing the statistics of extreme events hidden in short weather forecast data
Justin Finkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Dorian S. Abbot +1
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on…
Snow topography on undeformed Arctic sea ice captured by an idealized "snow dune" model
Predrag Popović, Justin Finkel, Mary C. Silber +1
Our ability to predict the future of Arctic sea ice is limited by ice's sensitivity to detailed surface conditions such as the distribution of snow and melt ponds. Snow on top of t…
Data-driven transition path analysis yields a statistical understanding of sudden stratospheric warming events in an idealized model
Justin Finkel, Robert J. Webber, Edwin P. Gerber +2
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecastin…
Learning forecasts of rare stratospheric transitions from short simulations
Justin Finkel, Robert J. Webber, Dorian S. Abbot +2
Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stra…
Path properties of atmospheric transitions: illustration with a low-order sudden stratospheric warming model
Justin Finkel, Dorian Abbot, Jonathan Weare
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology require…
Changing World Extreme Temperature Statistics
J. M. Finkel, J. I. Katz
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature rec…
Changing U.S. Extreme Temperature Statistics
J. M. Finkel, J. I. Katz
The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important tha…