Quantum mechanics, Bayes' theorem and the conjunction fallacy

Abstract

In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum formalism can be used to describe in a very simple way this fallacy in terms of interference effect. We evidence that the quantum formalism leads quite naturally to violations of Bayes' rule when considering the probability of the conjunction of two events. Thus we suggest that in cognitive science the formalism of quantum mechanics can be used to describe a \textit{quantum regime}, the bounded-rationality regime, where the cognitive heuristics are valid.

11 pages

References in corpus (3)

• Quantum Aspects of Semantic Analysis and Symbolic Artificial Intelligence
• Quantum Interference and Superposition in Cognition: Development of a Theory for the Disjunction of Concepts
• Quantum mechanics and rational ignorance

Cited by in corpus (9)

• Quantum Structure in Cognition
• A model of quantum-like decision-making with applications to psychology and cognitive science
• The conjunction fallacy and interference effects
• Towards a new quantum cognition model
• Grover's algorithm and human memory
• The Quantum-Like Brain Operating on Subcognitive and Cognitive Time Scales
• First steps to a constructor theory of cognition
• Quantum amplitude amplification algorithm: an explanation of availability bias
• Quantum-like Description of Probabilistic Data from Shafir-Tversky Experiments: evidence of trigonometric and hyperbolic (!) interference