Chaotic desynchronization of multi-strain diseases
arXiv:physics/0510005 · doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201
Abstract
Multi-strain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and second ary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
6 pages with 7 figures accepted to Physical Review E
Cited by in corpus (5)
- Epidemics with Multistrain Interactions: The Interplay Between Cross Immunity and Antibody-Dependent Enhancement
- A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity
- Irregularity in dengue fever epidemics: difference between first and secondary infections drives the rich dynamics more than the detailed number of strains
- Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks
- Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics