The problem with the Brier score

Abstract

The Brier score is frequently used by meteorologists to measure the skill of binary probabilistic forecasts. We show, however, that in simple idealised cases it gives counterintuitive results. We advocate the use of an alternative measure that has a more compelling intuitive justification.

References in corpus (2)

• Moment based methods for ensemble assessment and calibration
• Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts

Cited by in corpus (1)

• Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary of our recent research results