Bayesian Quantile Deep Echo State Networks for Nonlinear Time Series

Abstract

Conditional quantiles are central to asymmetric decision losses, tail-risk assessment, and interval forecasts, but Bayesian quantile regression for nonlinear time series can be difficult when the temporal feature vector is high-dimensional. We develop the quantile deep echo state network (Q-DESN), a Bayesian quantile regression model conditional on fixed features generated by a deep echo state network. Conditional on a specified reservoir construction and feature map, posterior uncertainty is assigned to the regression coefficients, likelihood, and shrinkage parameters. Single-level fits use asymmetric Laplace or quantile-fixed generalized asymmetric Laplace working likelihoods with ridge or regularized-horseshoe priors. Posterior computation uses Markov chain Monte Carlo when computationally practical and a model-specific variational Bayes approximation for analyses requiring repeated fitting. For quantile grids, we compare independent level-wise regressions followed by monotone rearrangement with a joint quantile-vector regression that shrinks adjacent quantile-specific coefficient differences. Synthetic studies, a single-origin retrospective Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) streamflow case, and a retrospective PriceFM comparison identify settings where this fixed-feature Bayesian regression improves finite-grid quantile scores.

41 pages main text, 50-page supplement, 9 figures