The Manticore Project II: Bayesian digital twins of cosmic structure across the SDSS and BOSS volumes

Abstract

We present Manticore-Deep, a high-resolution Bayesian field-level reconstruction of cosmic large-scale structure over a comoving volume of $(4h^{-1}\mathrm{Gpc}{)}^3$ to $z\approx 0.7$ at $\sim 4$~Mpc/h resolution. Extending the companion Manticore-Local analysis (Paper~I), Manticore-Deep jointly constrains five galaxy redshift surveys within a single hierarchical Bayesian framework using the BORG algorithm. The inference reconstructs primordial initial conditions evolved under gravity, yielding a posterior ensemble of three-dimensional density and velocity fields that causally reproduce the observed large-scale structure. A novel tiled inference strategy extends the reconstructed volume by more than an order of magnitude beyond Paper~I. Posterior realisations are consistent with LCDM, reproducing Gaussian isotropic initial conditions and the expected $z=0$ matter power spectrum, bispectrum, and halo mass function over the resolved scales. We validate the reconstruction using two independent template-free posterior-predictive tests against observations excluded from the inference. Cross-correlation with the \textit{Planck} PR3 CMB lensing map yields a cumulative detection significance of 7.4 $\sigma$, while velocity-weighted stacking of $64,750$ galaxy clusters on the \textit{Planck} 217~GHz map detects the kinetic Sunyaev--Zel'dovich effect at $3.5\sigma$, with a model-independent approach--recession split confirming the inferred velocities. Together, these tests validate both the projected-density and three-dimensional velocity fields recovered by Manticore-Deep. The BOSS Great Wall is recovered as a $\sim 3\sigma$ overdensity consistent with LCDM across the posterior ensemble. Manticore-Deep establishes a benchmark for survey-depth constrained cosmological digital twins and reproducible field-level validation of large-scale structure reconstructions.

29 pages, 21 figures. Published in MNRAS. Data will become available at www.cosmictwin.org. This is a Learning the Universe publication

References in corpus (45)

• K-corrections and filter transformations in the ultraviolet, optical, and near infrared
• The DESI Experiment Part I: Science,Targeting, and Survey Design
• Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing
• Why your model parameter confidences might be too optimistic -- unbiased estimation of the inverse covariance matrix
• Euclid. I. Overview of the Euclid mission
• The Cosmic Linear Anisotropy Solving System (CLASS) I: Overview
• The FLAMINGO project: cosmological hydrodynamical simulations for large-scale structure and galaxy cluster surveys
• ELUCID - Exploring the Local Universe with reConstructed Initial Density field I: Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method with Particle Mesh Dynamics
• Calibration of the optical mass proxy for clusters of galaxies and an update of the WHL12 cluster catalog
• Near-Infrared and Optical Luminosity Functions from the 6dF Galaxy Survey
• ELUCID - Exploring the Local Universe with reConstructed Initial Density field III: Constrained Simulation in the SDSS Volume
• HBT+: an improved code for finding subhalos and building merger trees in cosmological simulations
• SWIFT: A modern highly-parallel gravity and smoothed particle hydrodynamics solver for astrophysical and cosmological applications
• Cosmological Analysis of Three-Dimensional BOSS Galaxy Clustering and Planck CMB Lensing Cross Correlations via Lagrangian Perturbation Theory
• Bayesian analysis of the dynamic cosmic web in the SDSS galaxy survey
• How much information can be extracted from galaxy clustering at the field level?
• Large Synoptic Survey Telescope: Dark Energy Science Collaboration
• A Giant Arc on the Sky
• SIBELIUS-DARK: a galaxy catalogue of the Local Volume from a constrained realisation simulation
• Bayesian forward modelling of cosmic shear data
• Detection of missing baryons in galaxy groups with kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect
• Simulating the LOcal Web (SLOW): I. Anomalies in the local density field
• Cosmology with the moving lens effect
• On the accuracy and precision of correlation functions and field-level inference in cosmology
• Cosmology inference at the field level from biased tracers in redshift-space
• SOAP: A Python Package for Calculating the Properties of Galaxies and Halos Formed in Cosmological Simulations
• I- A hydrodynamical CLONE of the Virgo cluster of galaxies to confirm observationally-driven formation scenarios
• Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI galaxy groups
• Towards Accurate Field-Level Inference of Massive Cosmic Structures
• Simulating the LOcal Web (SLOW) II: Properties of local galaxy clusters
• ELUCID VII: Using Constrained Hydro Simulations to Explore the Gas Component of the Cosmic Web
• The evolution of high-density cores of the BOSS Great Wall superclusters
• Two per cent measurement of $H_0$ from Cepheids alone
• Cross-correlation between $Planck$ CMB lensing potential and galaxy catalogues from HELP
• A Local Universe model for constrained simulations
• The effect of local universe constraints on halo abundance and clustering
• Assessing subhalo finders in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations
• Evaluating the variance of individual halo properties in constrained cosmological simulations
• The Velocity Field Olympics: Assessing velocity field reconstructions with direct distance tracers
• A Bayesian catalog of 100 high-significance voids in the Local Universe
• Inference of matter power spectrum at z=0 using DESI DR1 Full-Shape data
• Constraining cosmological simulations with peculiar velocities: a forward-modeling approach
• The Manticore-Local Cluster Catalogue: A Posterior Map of Massive Structures in the Nearby Universe
• Zero-Shot Tokenizer Transfer
• Reconstructing the largest scales of the Universe with field-level inference applied to the Quaia Quasar Catalogue