paper

The Death Spiral of Open Source Projects: A Post-Mortem Analysis of Pull Request Workflow Dynamics

arXiv:2605.11844 · doi:10.1016/j.jss.2026.112942

Abstract

Open Source Software projects (OSS) are central to modern technology, yet their survival rates remain low. Prior research has examined project mortality through macro-level indicators such as commit activity, developer abandonment, and ecosystem dependencies, but the micro-level dynamics of the Pull Request (PR) workflow have been largely overlooked. This study provides the first large-scale post-mortem analysis of PR workflows across 1,736 inactive GitHub repositories and 1.3 million human-driven PRs. Using a mixed-method quantitative design, we investigate three dimensions of mortality. First, our comparative descriptive analysis shows that workflow friction, extended review cycles, and negativity penalties are endemic properties of the entire GitHub platform across both active and inactive projects. Rejected PRs consistently attract higher discussion and negativity regardless of project health. Second, our evolutionary analysis identifies a universal ``death spiral" marked by declining innovation rates, exponential backlog growth, rising merge latency. The collapse was defined by silence and disengagement. Labeling formalization remained endemic throughout the lifecycle, while toxicity did not intensify. Finally, our explanatory modeling demonstrates that project lifespan is not determined by workflow efficiency but by inherent value and ecosystem dynamics. Popularity and innovation emerge as strong positive predictors of survival, while friction, rejection rates, labeling formalization, and negativity scale with longevity as byproducts rather than causes of failure. Robustness checks across alternative inactivity thresholds confirm these findings. Together, this work reframes OSS mortality as a socio-technical phenomenon in which abandonment and ecosystem value dominate survival outcomes, while PR-level workflow discipline plays a secondary role.

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