Multi-parameter constraints on empirical infrasound period-yield relations for bolides and implications for planetary defense

Abstract

How effective are methods for estimating bolide energies from infrasound signal period-yield relationships? A single global period-energy relation can obscure significant variability introduced by parameters such as the atmospheric Doppler wind profile and the bolide's energy deposition profile as a function of altitude. Bolide speed, entry angle, burst altitude, and multi-episode fragmentation all may play a role in defining the detected period of the shockwave. By leveraging bolide light curve data from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), we re-examined the period-energy relation as a function of these parameters. Through a bootstrap approach, we show that various event subsets can deviate from widely cited period-energy models and we identify which specific conditions most strongly reshape the period-energy scaling. The results define both the fidelity and reliability of period-energy relations when no additional data beyond the infrasound record is available and improve the outcome when supporting data from bolide trajectories and light curves are included. Ultimately, these findings expand the scope of earlier models, providing a nuanced and robust framework for infrasound-only yield estimation under a range of bolide scenarios.

37 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables, Appendix A, Appendix B

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• BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball Database
• The Role of Source Geometry and Atmospheric Propagation in Global Bolide Infrasound Detectability
• Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding