Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve
arXiv:2409.19378 · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111477
Abstract
The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, required invoking ad hoc mechanisms to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative and simpler mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications.
The published version of the paper (Ecological Modelling Volume 514, April 2026, 111477) is available here https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304380026000050