Advanced testing of low, medium and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m
arXiv:2203.15585 · doi:10.1029/2022GL097716
Abstract
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 °C to 5.67 °C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 °C; medium, 3.01-4.50 °C; high, 4.51-6.00 °C) and compared against the ERA5-T2m records from 1980-1990 to 2011-2021. We found that all models with ECS > 3.0 °C overestimate the observed global surface warming and that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement over 60% (using low-ECS GCMs) to 81% (using high-ECS GCMs) of the Earth's surface. Thus, the high and medium-ECS GCMs are unfit for prediction purposes. The low-ECS GCMs are not fully satisfactory yet, but they are found unalarming because by 2050 they predict a moderate warming ().
14 pages, 1 table, 6 figures
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- Advanced testing of low, medium and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m
- Reply to "Comment on 'Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m' by N. Scafetta (2022)" by Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy (2023)
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Cited by in corpus (5)
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- Reply to "Comment on 'Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m' by N. Scafetta (2022)" by Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy (2023)
- CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures
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