Exact asymptotic solutions to nonlinear Hawkes processes: a systematic classification of the steady-state solutions

Abstract

Hawkes point processes are first-order non-Markovian stochastic models of intermittent bursty dynamics with applications to physical, seismic, epidemic, biological, financial, and social systems. While accounting for positive feedback loops that may lead to critical phenomena in complex systems, the standard linear Hawkes process only describes excitative phenomena. To describe the co-existence of excitatory and inhibitory effects (or negative feedbacks), extensions involving nonlinear dependences of the intensity as a function of past activity are needed. However, such nonlinear Hawkes processes have been found hitherto to be analytically intractable due to the interplay between their non-Markovian and nonlinear characteristics, with no analytical solutions available. Here, we present various exact and robust asymptotic solutions to nonlinear Hawkes processes using the field master equation approach. We report explicit power law formulas for the steady state intensity distributions $P_{\mathrm{ss}}(\lambda )\propto {\lambda }^{-1-a}$, where the tail exponent $a$ is expressed analytically as a function of parameters of the nonlinear Hawkes models. We present three robust interesting characteristics of the nonlinear Hawkes process: (i) for one-sided positive marks (i.e., in the absence of inhibitory effects), the nonlinear Hawkes process can exhibit any power law relation either as intermediate asymptotics ($a\le 0$) or as true asymptotics ($a>0$) by appropriate model selection; (ii) for distribution of marks with zero mean (i.e., for balanced excitatory and inhibitory effects), the Zipf law ($a\approx 1$) is universally observed for a wide class of nonlinear Hawkes processes with fast-accelerating intensity map; (iii) for marks with a negative mean, the asymptotic power law tail becomes lighter with an exponent increasing above 1 ($a>1$) as the mean mark becomes more negative.

arXiv comment63 pages, 12 figures, 1 table

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