Peace Through Side Payments
arXiv:2107.11575
The paper analyzes how parties can use side payments to negotiate peace before a conflict turns into war, comparing a take‑it‑or‑leave‑it offer model with a request model and showing how each affects the stability of peace.
Abstract
We study strategic bargaining for peaceful settlement before conflict escalates into war, comparing two protocols: offering a take-it-or-leave-it side payment versus requesting one. Unlike in mediation models, the proposer here can signal private information and influence the opponent's beliefs by varying the payment proposal, which renders the prospect of peace tenuous. In the bribing model, peace can be implemented through a continuum of bribes but cannot be secured. Conversely, in the requesting model, peace security is possible, yet it can only be sustained through a single, specific request.