The Dimmest State of the Sun
arXiv:2102.09487 · doi:10.1029/2020GL090243
Abstract
How the solar electromagnetic energy entering the Earth's atmosphere varied since pre-industrial times is an important consideration in the climate change debate. Detrimental to this debate, estimates of the change in total solar irradiance (TSI) since the Maunder minimum, an extended period of weak solar activity preceding the industrial revolution, differ markedly, ranging from a drop of 0.75 Wm-2 to a rise of 6.3 Wm-2. Consequently, the exact contribution by solar forcing to the rise in global temperatures over the past centuries remains inconclusive. Adopting a novel approach based on state-of-the-art solar imagery and numerical simulations, we establish the TSI level of the Sun when it is in its least-active state to be 2.0 +/- 0.7 Wm-2 below the 2019 level. This means TSI could not have risen since the Maunder minimum by more than this amount, thus restricting the possible role of solar forcing in global warming.
arXiv commentSupporting information: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1029%2F2020GL090243&file=grl61316-sup-0001-Text_SI-S01.pdf
References in corpus (23)
- Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate
- A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing
- Numerical simulations of quiet Sun magnetism: On the contribution from a small-scale dynamo
- A solar surface dynamo
- Reconstruction of the Sunspot Group Number: the Backbone Method
- Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI and SDO/HMI observations
- Strong horizontal photospheric magnetic field in a surface dynamo simulation
- Probing quiet Sun magnetism using MURaM simulations and Hinode/SP results: support for a local dynamo
- Solar total and spectral irradiance reconstruction over the last 9000 years
- Quiet Sun magnetic fields observed by Hinode: Support for a local dynamo
- Solar cycle variation in solar irradiance
- Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface
- Why one-dimensional models fail in the diagnosis of average spectra from inhomogeneous stellar atmospheres
- Revised historical solar irradiance forcing
- Comparison of solar photospheric bright points between SUNRISE observations and MHD simulations
- Solar magnetoconvection and small-scale dynamo: Recent developments in observation and simulation
- 3-D non-LTE radiative transfer effects in Fe I lines: II. Line formation in 3-D radiation hydrodynamic simulations
- A novel investigation of the small-scale magnetic activity of the quiet Sun via the Hanle effect in the Sr I 4607 Å line
- Reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance since 1700 from simulated magnetograms
- Observed and Simulated Power Spectra of Kinetic and Magnetic Energy retrieved with 2D inversions
- Intensity contrast from MHD simulations and from HINODE observations
- On the contribution of quiet Sun magnetism to solar irradiance variations: Constraints on quiet Sun variability and grand minimum scenarios
- Intensity contrast of solar network and faculae -- II. Implications for solar irradiance modelling
Cited by in corpus (12)
- How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate
- Full-disc Ca II K observations -- a window to past solar magnetism
- Small-scale dynamos: From idealized models to solar and stellar applications
- Reconstructing solar irradiance from historical Ca II K observations. I. Method and its validation
- Total Solar Irradiance during the Last Five Centuries
- Modelling the evolution of the Sun's open and total magnetic flux
- Small-scale dynamo in cool main sequence stars. II. The effect of metallicity
- Irradiance Variations of the Sun and Sun-Like Stars -- Overview of Topical Collection
- Insight into the solar plage chromosphere with DKIST
- Intensity contrast of solar network and faculae close to the solar limb, observed from two vantage points
- Detection, attribution, and modeling of climate change: key open issues
- Solar Irradiance Reconstruction over the Telescopic Era Using a Revised Photospheric Magnetic Field Model