Forecasting elections results via the voter model with stubborn nodes
arXiv:2009.10627 · doi:10.1007/s41109-020-00342-7
Abstract
In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours. We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election. We obtain a mean absolute error of 4.74\%. As a side product, our parameters estimates provide meaningful insight on the political landscape, informing us on the proportion of voters that are strong supporters of each of the considered parties.
References in corpus (6)
- Voter Models on Heterogeneous Networks
- Does a Single Zealot Affect an Infinite Group of Voters ?
- On the Role of Zealotry in the Voter Model
- The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach
- Using Social Media to Predict the Future: A Systematic Literature Review
- Voter and Majority Dynamics with Biased and Stubborn Agents