Analytic solution of the SEIR epidemic model via asymptotic approximant
arXiv:2006.09818 · doi:10.1016/j.physd.2020.132633
Abstract
An analytic solution is obtained to the SEIR Epidemic Model. The solution is created by constructing a single second-order nonlinear differential equation in and analytically continuing its divergent power series solution such that it matches the correct long-time exponential damping of the epidemic model. This is achieved through an asymptotic approximant (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48) in the form of a modified symmetric Padé approximant that incorporates this damping. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.
original version had substantial text overlap with arXiv:2004.07833; this is now less so