Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points

Abstract

A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (`instantaneous') with fully nonlinear geometric (`two-point') notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.

arXiv comment11 figures

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• Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green's Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints
• Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model
• Climate Response and Sensitivity: Timescales and Late Tipping Points
• Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate
• Rate-dependent bifurcation dodging in a thermoacoustic system driven by colored noise
• Nonautonomous modelling in Energy Balance Models of climate. Limitations of averaging and climate sensitivity