The importance of ensemble techniques for operational space weather forecasting

Abstract

The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multi-disciplinary session at the 2017 American Geophysical Union Meeting, 'Frontier Solar-Terrestrial Science Enabled by the Combination of Data-Driven Techniques and Physics-Based Understanding', with considerable discussion surrounding ensemble techniques. Here ensemble methods are described in detail; using a set of predictions to improve on a single-model output, for example taking a simple average of multiple models, or using more complex techniques for data assimilation. They have been used extensively in fields such as numerical weather prediction and data science, for both improving model accuracy and providing a measure of model uncertainty. Researchers in the space weather community have found them to be similarly useful, and some examples of success stories are highlighted in this commentary. Future developments are also encouraged to transition these basic research efforts to operational forecasting as well as providing prediction errors to aid end-user understanding.

arXiv commentAccepted for publication as invited Commentary in Space Weather. 10 pages, 3 figures

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• Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models: I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework
• CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting
• Towards Coupling Full-disk and Active Region-based Flare Prediction for Operational Space Weather Forecasting
• Toward a Next Generation Particle Precipitation Model: Mesoscale Prediction Through Machine Learning (a Case Study and Framework for Progress)
• Ensemble simulations of the 12 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant Turn Flux Rope Model
• Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares: Methods for Combining Models