Critical noise can make the minority candidate win: The US Presidential Election cases

Abstract

A national voting population, when segmented into groups like, for example, different states, can yield a counter-intuitive scenario where the winner may not necessarily get the most number of total votes. A recent example is the 2016 presidential election in the US. We model the situation by using interacting opinion dynamics models and look at the effect of coarse graining near the critical points where the spatial fluctuations are high. We establish that the sole effect of coarse graining, which mimics the `winner takes all' electoral college system in the US, can give rise to finite probabilities of such events of minority candidate winning even in the large size limit near the critical point. The overall probabilities of victory of the minority candidate can be predicted from the models which indicates that one may expect more instances of minority candidate winning in the future.

7 pages, 8 figures

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Cited by in corpus (9)

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• From classical to modern opinion dynamics
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• Long route to consensus: Two stage coarsening in a binary choice voting model
• Double transition in kinetic exchange opinion models with activation dynamics
• Block size dependence of coarse graining in discrete opinion dynamics model: Application to the US presidential elections
• Virtual walks and phase transitions in two dimensional BChS model with extreme switches
• Opinion formation models with extreme switches and disorder: critical behaviour and dynamics
• Record breaking statistics near second order phase transitions