Modelling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics

Abstract

The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding $p$-values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive $p$-value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavour physics.

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• What $R_K$ and $Q_5$ can tell us about New Physics in $b\to s\ell \ell$ transitions?
• A new $B$-flavour anomaly in $B_{d,s}\to K^{\ast 0}{\bar{K}}^{\ast 0}$: anatomy and interpretation
• A new puzzle in non-leptonic B decays
• Constraining the gauge and scalar sectors of the doublet left-right symmetric model
• $S$-wave contribution to rare $D^0\to {\pi }^{+}{\pi }^{-}{\ell }^{+}{\ell }^{-}$ decays in the Standard Model and sensitivity to New Physics
• Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo
• Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass