Epidemic extinction and control in heterogeneous networks
arXiv:1604.07244 · doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.028302
Abstract
We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or optimal, paths to extinction in various configurations, including truncated power-laws. We find that paths for heterogeneous networks follow a limiting form in which infection first decreases in low-degree nodes, which triggers a rapid extinction in high- degree nodes, and finishes with a residual low-degree extinction. The usefulness of the approach is further demonstrated through optimal control strategies that leverage finite-size fluctuations. Interestingly, we find that the optimal control is a mix of treating both high and low-degree nodes based on large-fluctuation theoretical predictions.
4.5 pages, 3 figures
References in corpus (5)
Cited by in corpus (44)
- Statistical physics of vaccination
- WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations
- Emergent failures and cascades in power grids: a statistical physics perspective
- Concurrency-induced transitions in epidemic dynamics on temporal networks
- Emergence of scale-free blackout sizes in power grids
- Hamiltonian dynamics of the SIS epidemic model with stochastic fluctuations
- Random walks on complex networks with first-passage resetting
- Markovian approach to tackle the interaction of simultaneous diseases
- Large deviations of random walks on random graphs
- Random walks on complex networks under node-dependent stochastic resetting
- Description of spreading dynamics by microscopic network models and macroscopic branching processes can differ due to coalescence
- Noise-Induced Desynchronization and Stochastic Escape from Equilibrium in Complex Networks
- Epidemic Extinction Paths in Complex Networks
- Hybrid dynamics in delay-coupled swarms with "mothership" networks
- Random walks on complex networks under time-dependent stochastic resetting
- Global Robustness vs. Local Vulnerabilities in Complex Synchronous Networks
- Network desynchronization by non-Gaussian fluctuations
- Generalized optimal paths and weight distributions revealed through the large deviations of random walks on networks
- Random walks on complex networks with multiple resetting nodes: a renewal approach
- Rare slips in fluctuating synchronized oscillator networks
- Degree Dispersion Increases the Rate of Rare Events in Population Networks
- Enhancement of large fluctuations to extinction in adaptive networks
- Large order fluctuations, switching, and control in complex networks
- Large deviation induced phase switch in an inertial majority-vote model
- Multistage onset of epidemics in heterogeneous networks
- Layered Complex Networks as Fluctuation Amplifiers
- Rare events in networks with internal and external noise
- Epidemic extinction in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model
- Applications of WKB and Fokker-Planck methods in analyzing population extinction driven by weak demographic fluctuations
- Dynamical fluctuations of random walks in higher-order networks
- Network Inoculation: Heteroclinics and phase transitions in an epidemic model
- SIS model of disease extinction on heterogeneous directed population networks
- Maximal dispersion of adaptive random walks
- Expected Extinction Times of Epidemics with State-Dependent Infectiousness
- Extremal statistics for first-passage trajectories of drifted Brownian motion under stochastic resetting
- Epidemic extinction in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model
- Asymmetric noise-induced large fluctuations in coupled systems
- Large deviation and anomalous fluctuations scaling in degree assortativity on configuration networks
- Iterative control strategies for non-linear systems
- Hierarchical Coarse-grained Approach to the Duration-dependent Spreading Dynamics in Complex Networks
- Non-equilibrium random walks on multiplex networks
- How network properties and epidemic parameters influence stochastic SIR dynamics on scale-free random networks
- Impacts of bridging nodes on the epidemic activation mechanisms
- Noise-induced peak intensity fluctuations in class B laser systems