Predicting the epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-recovered model

Abstract

Researchers have developed several theoretical methods for predicting epidemic thresholds, including the mean-field like (MFL) method, the quenched mean-field (QMF) method, and the dynamical message passing (DMP) method. When these methods are applied to predict epidemic threshold they often produce differing results and their relative levels of accuracy are still unknown. We systematically analyze these two issues---relationships among differing results and levels of accuracy---by studying the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on uncorrelated configuration networks and a group of 56 real-world networks. In uncorrelated configuration networks the MFL and DMP methods yield identical predictions that are larger and more accurate than the prediction generated by the QMF method. When compared to the 56 real-world networks, the epidemic threshold obtained by the DMP method is closer to the actual epidemic threshold because it incorporates full network topology information and some dynamical correlations. We find that in some scenarios---such as networks with positive degree-degree correlations, with an eigenvector localized on the high $k$-core nodes, or with a high level of clustering---the epidemic threshold predicted by the MFL method, which uses the degree distribution as the only input parameter, performs better than the other two methods. We also find that the performances of the three predictions are irregular versus modularity.

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Cited by in corpus (9)

• Unification of theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks
• Coevolution spreading in complex networks
• Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model
• Centrality in Modular Networks
• Contact-based model for epidemic spreading on temporal networks
• Map Equation Centrality: Community-aware Centrality based on the Map Equation
• Large-deviations of the SIR model around the epidemic threshold
• Optimizing spreading dynamics in interconnected networks
• Epidemic risk perception and social interactions lead to awareness cascades on multiplex networks