Chaotic Disintegration of the Inner Solar System

Abstract

On timescales that greatly exceed an orbital period, typical planetary orbits evolve in a stochastic yet stable fashion. On even longer timescales, however, planetary orbits can spontaneously transition from bounded to unbound chaotic states. Large-scale instabilities associated with such behavior appear to play a dominant role in shaping the architectures of planetary systems, including our own. Here we show how such transitions are possible, focusing on the specific case of the long-term evolution of Mercury. We develop a simple analytical model for Mercury's dynamics and elucidate the origins of its short term stochastic behavior as well as of its sudden progression to unbounded chaos. Our model allows us to estimate the timescale on which this transition is likely to be triggered, i.e. the dynamical lifetime of the Solar System as we know it. The formulated theory is consistent with the results of numerical simulations and is broadly applicable to extrasolar planetary systems dominated by secular interactions. These results constitute a significant advancement in our understanding of the processes responsible for sculpting of the dynamical structures of generic planetary systems.

18 pages, 7 figures, accepted to ApJ

References in corpus (9)

• Dynamical Outcomes of Planet-Planet Scattering
• Origin of the Structure of the Kuiper Belt during a Dynamical Instability in the Orbits of Uranus and Neptune
• Origins of Eccentric Extrasolar Planets: Testing the Planet-Planet Scattering Model
• Chaotic diffusion in the Solar System
• Planet-planet scattering in planetesimal disks
• On the Dynamical Stability of the Solar System
• Relativistic Effects in Extrasolar Planetary Systems
• Secular dynamics of coplanar, non-resonant planetary system under the general relativity and quadrupole moment perturbations
• Equilibria in the secular, non-coplanar two-planet problem

Cited by in corpus (29)

• AMD-stability and the classification of planetary systems
• Predicting the long-term stability of compact multiplanet systems
• Planetary engulfment as a trigger for white dwarf pollution
• A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Tightly Packed Planetary Systems
• The path to instability in compact multi-planetary systems
• Dynamical Evolution of Multi-Resonant Systems: the Case of GJ876
• Dynamical Stability of Imaged Planetary Systems in Formation: Application to HL Tau
• Solar Obliquity Induced by Planet Nine
• The Asteroid Belt as a Relic From a Chaotic Early Solar System
• The fates of Solar system analogues with one additional distant planet
• Long-term dynamics of the solar system inner planets
• Fundamental limits from chaos on instability time predictions in compact planetary systems
• On the long-term stability of the Solar System in the presence of weak perturbations from stellar flybys
• Habitable planet formation around low-mass stars: Rapid accretion, rapid debris removal and the essential contribution of external giants
• The Stability Boundary of the Distant Scattered Disk
• The six-planet resonant chain of HD 110067
• Dynamical origin of the Dwarf Planet Ceres
• The early instability scenario: Mars' mass explained by Jupiter's orbit
• Stepsize errors in the $N$-body problem: discerning Mercury's true possible long-term orbits
• Timescales of Chaos in the Inner Solar System: Lyapunov Spectrum and Quasi-integrals of Motion
• Rethinking the role of the giant planet instability in terrestrial planet formation models
• Breakup of the Synchronous State of Binary Asteroid Systems
• Long-term instability of the inner Solar System: numerical experiments
• The GAPS Programme at TNG -- XXIV. An eccentric Neptune-mass planet near the inner edge of the BD-11 4672 habitable zone
• Reduced variations in Earth's and Mars' orbital inclination and Earth's obliquity from 58 to 48 Myr ago due to solar system chaos
• orbitN: A symplectic integrator for planetary systems dominated by a central mass -- Insight into long-term solar system chaos
• General relativistic precession and the long-term stability of the solar system
• Lyapunov exponents in fundamental models of nonlinear resonance
• Long-term influence of asteroids on planet longitudes and chaotic dynamics of the solar system