Scaling and Hierarchy in Urban Economies

Abstract

In several recent publications, Bettencourt, West and collaborators claim that properties of cities such as gross economic production, personal income, numbers of patents filed, number of crimes committed, etc., show super-linear power-scaling with total population, while measures of resource use show sub-linear power-law scaling. Re-analysis of the gross economic production and personal income for cities in the United States, however, shows that the data cannot distinguish between power laws and other functional forms, including logarithmic growth, and that size predicts relatively little of the variation between cities. The striking appearance of scaling in previous work is largely artifact of using extensive quantities (city-wide totals) rather than intensive ones (per-capita rates). The remaining dependence of productivity on city size is explained by concentration of specialist service industries, with high value-added per worker, in larger cities, in accordance with the long-standing economic notion of the "hierarchy of central places".

v1: 15 pages, 9 figures, combines main text and supporting information into one document. Submitted to PNAS. v2: Text re-arranged to comply with journal policies; added analysis with logistic (asymptotically constant) scaling relations; minor corrections

References in corpus (1)

• Frequentist statistics as a theory of inductive inference

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