A Failure of Serendipity: the Square Kilometre Array will struggle to eavesdrop on Human-like ETI

Abstract

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will operate in frequency ranges often used by military radar and other communications technology. It has been shown that if Extraterrestrial Intelligences (ETIs) communicate using similar technology, then the SKA should be able to detect such transmissions up to distances of ~100 pc (~300 light years) from Earth. However, Mankind has greatly improved its communications technology over the last century, dramatically reducing signal leakage and making the Earth "radio quiet". If ETIs follow the same pattern as the human race, will we be able to detect their signal leakage before they become radio quiet? We investigate this question using Monte Carlo Realisation techniques to simulate the growth and evolution of intelligent life in the Galaxy. We show that if civilisations are "human" in nature (i.e. they are only "radio loud" for ~100 years, and can only detect each other with an SKA-like instrument out to 100 pc, within a maximum communication time of 100 years), then the probability for such civilisations accidentally detecting each other is low (~10^{-7}), much lower than if other, dedicated communication techniques are permissible (e.g. optical SETI or neutrino communication).

8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology

References in corpus (3)

• The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XI. Super-Earths (5 & 8 M_Earth) in a 3-planet system
• Numerical Testing of The Rare Earth Hypothesis using Monte Carlo Realisation Techniques
• The Entropy Principle and the Influence of Sociological Pressures on SETI

Cited by in corpus (20)

• The Case for Technosignatures: Why They May Be Abundant, Long-lived, Highly Detectable, and Unambiguous
• Detection Technique for Artificially-Illuminated Objects in the Outer Solar System and Beyond
• The Nine Axes of Merit for Technosignature Searches
• The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence in Earth's Solar Transit Zone
• Relative Likelihood of Success in the Searches for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life
• Detectability of Chlorofluorocarbons in the Atmospheres of Habitable M-dwarf Planets
• Spatio-temporal Constraints on the Zoo Hypothesis, and the Breakdown of Total Hegemony
• Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: a Bayesian argument for conservatism
• Slingshot Dynamics for Self Replicating Probes and the Effect on Exploration Timescales
• Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way
• On the Possibility of Detecting Class A Stellar Engines Using Exoplanet Transit Curves
• Lens Flare: Magnified X-Ray Binaries as Passive Beacons in SETI
• Costs and Difficulties of Large-Scale 'Messaging', and the Need for International Debate on Potential Risks
• A direct communication proposal to test the Zoo Hypothesis
• The Log Log Prior for the Frequency of Extraterrestrial Intelligences
• The High Rate of the Boyajian's Star Anomaly as a Phenomenon
• One of Everything: The Breakthrough Listen Exotica Catalog
• The Noonday Argument: Fine-Graining, Indexicals, and the Nature of Copernican Reasoning
• Exoplanet Transits as the Foundation of an Interstellar Communications Network
• Impact of technological synchronicity on prospects for CETI