Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

Abstract

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

Preprint version of what has since been published in Nature

Cited by in corpus (9)

• Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2
• Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Dangerous
• Evolving understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea-level projections
• Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment
• Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
• Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature
• Isostasy with Love: II Airy compensation arising from viscoelastic relaxation
• Statistical modeling of rates and trends in Holocene relative sea level
• reslr: An R package for relative sea level modelling