On the influence of time and space correlations on the next earthquake magnitude

Abstract

A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude similar but smaller than the previous one. A dynamical scaling relation between magnitude, time and space distances reproduces the complex pattern of magnitude, spatial and temporal correlations observed in experimental seismic catalogs.

arXiv comment4 Figures

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• Earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns
• Order parameter fluctuations in natural time and b-value variation before large earthquakes
• Fast radio bursts trigger aftershocks resembling earthquakes, but not solar flares
• Record-Breaking Avalanches in Driven Threshold Systems
• The arrival time and energy of FRBs traverse the time-energy bivariate space like a Brownian motion
• Scaling of Seismic Memory with Earthquake Size
• Scaling Laws in Earthquake Memory for Interevent Times and Distances
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• Time-energy correlations in solar flare occurrence
• Exploring the relationship between the magnitudes of seismic events
• Topological properties of epidemic aftershock processes
• Universal features of correlated bursty behaviour
• Asymmetry in earthquake interevent time intervals
• Fast radio bursts, magnetars and earthquakes: their "family feud"?