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17 papers · 2 filters
A Framework for Comparing Uncertain Inference Systems to Probability
Ben P. Wise, Max Henrion
Several different uncertain inference systems (UISs) have been developed for representing uncertainty in rule-based expert systems. Some of these, such as Mycin's Certainty Factors…
Detecting Causal Relations in the Presence of Unmeasured Variables
Peter L. Spirtes
The presence of latent variables can greatly complicate inferences about causal relations between measured variables from statistical data. In many cases, the presence of latent va…
Intercausal Reasoning with Uninstantiated Ancestor Nodes
Marek J. Druzdzel, Max Henrion
Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitat…
Causality in Bayesian Belief Networks
Marek J. Druzdzel, Herbert A. Simon
We address the problem of causal interpretation of the graphical structure of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). We review the concept of causality explicated in the domain of struct…
Planning with External Events
Jim S. Blythe
I describe a planning methodology for domains with uncertainty in the form of external events that are not completely predictable. The events are represented by enabling conditions…
Causal Inference in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Bias
Peter L. Spirtes, Christopher Meek, Thomas S. Richardson
We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias…