output
20122024
most citedDESPOT: Online POMDP Planning with Regularization

182 citations

Showing stat.MEShow all

10 papers · 1 filter

stat.ME2022★ 16 cited

Strategic model reduction by analysing model sloppiness: a case study in coral calcification

Sarah A. Vollert, Christopher Drovandi, Gloria M. Monsalve-Bravo +1

It can be difficult to identify ways to reduce the complexity of large models whilst maintaining predictive power, particularly where there are hidden parameter interdependencies.…

stat.ME2022★ 2 cited

Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data

Gloria M. Monsalve-Bravo, Brodie A. J. Lawson, Christopher Drovandi +7

This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. T…

stat.ME2021★ 33 cited

Bayesian spatio-temporal models for stream networks

Edgar Santos-Fernandez, Jay M. Ver Hoef, Erin E. Peterson +3

Spatio-temporal models are widely used in many research areas including ecology. The recent proliferation of the use of in-situ sensors in streams and rivers supports space-time wa…

stat.ME2021★ 1 cited

Model structures and structural identifiability: What? Why? How?

Jason M. Whyte

We may attempt to encapsulate what we know about a physical system by a model structure, . This collection of related models is defined by parametric relationships between syste…

stat.ME2019

Streamlined Variational Inference for Higher Level Group-Specific Curve Models

M. Menictas, T. H. Nolan, D. G. Simpson +1

A two-level group-specific curve model is such that the mean response of each member of a group is a separate smooth function of a predictor of interest. The three-level extension…

stat.ME2018

Variational Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis

Weichang Yu, Lamiae Azizi, John T. Ormerod

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible w…

stat.ME2018★ 9 cited

Optimal Bayesian design for model discrimination via classification

Markus Hainy, David J. Price, Olivier Restif +1

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of…

stat.ME2018

Robust Particle Density Tempering for State Space Models

David Gunawan, Robert Kohn, Minh Ngoc Tran

Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Ca…

stat.ME2017★ 65 cited

Probabilistic Numerical Methods for PDE-constrained Bayesian Inverse Problems

Jon Cockayne, Chris Oates, Tim Sullivan +1

This paper develops meshless methods for probabilistically describing discretisation error in the numerical solution of partial differential equations. This construction enables th…

stat.ME2014★ 8 cited

Control functionals for Monte Carlo integration

Chris J. Oates, Mark Girolami, Nicolas Chopin

A non-parametric extension of control variates is presented. These leverage gradient information on the sampling density to achieve substantial variance reduction. It is not requir…