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Showing 2018Show all

10 papers · 1 filter

econ.EM2018

Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions

Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber

In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Ba…

cs.FL2018★ 65 cited

Monotone Precision and Recall Measures for Comparing Executions and Specifications of Dynamic Systems

Artem Polyvyanyy, Andreas Solti, Matthias Weidlich +2

The behavioural comparison of systems is an important concern of software engineering research. For example, the areas of specification discovery and specification mining are conce…

cs.CY2018★ 104 cited

Gender Differences in Participation and Reward on Stack Overflow

Anna May, Johannes Wachs, Aniko Hannak

Programming is a valuable skill in the labor market, making the underrepresentation of women in computing an increasingly important issue. Online question and answer platforms serv…

econ.EM2018

Bayesian shrinkage in mixture of experts models: Identifying robust determinants of class membership

Gregor Zens

A method for implicit variable selection in mixture of experts frameworks is proposed. We introduce a prior structure where information is taken from a set of independent covariate…

cs.CL2018

Measuring Semantic Coherence of a Conversation

Svitlana Vakulenko, Maarten de Rijke, Michael Cochez +2

Conversational systems have become increasingly popular as a way for humans to interact with computers. To be able to provide intelligent responses, conversational systems must cor…

econ.EM2018★ 20 cited

Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models

Michael Pfarrhofer, Philipp Piribauer

This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatia…

econ.EM2018★ 2 cited

Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns

Florian Huber, Gregor Kastner, Michael Pfarrhofer

We forecast S&P 500 excess returns using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparamete…

stat.ME2018★ 175 cited

Discussion on Bayesian Cluster Analysis: Point Estimation and Credible Balls by Sara Wade and Zoubin Ghahramani

William Weimin Yoo

I begin my discussion by giving an overview of the main results. Then I proceed to touch upon issues about whether the credible ball constructed can be interpreted as a confidence…

econ.EM2018

The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions

Manfred M. Fischer, Florian Huber, Michael Pfarrhofer +1

In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price…

econ.GN2018★ 14 cited

When does a disaster become a systemic event? Estimating indirect economic losses from natural disasters

Sebastian Poledna, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Michael Gregor Miess +8

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combi…