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16 papers · 1 filter
Combining Uncertain Estimates
Henry Hamburger
In a real expert system, one may have unreliable, unconfident, conflicting estimates of the value for a particular parameter. It is important for decision making that the informati…
Reasoning under Uncertainty: Some Monte Carlo Results
Paul E. Lehner, Azar Sadigh
A series of monte carlo studies were performed to compare the behavior of some alternative procedures for reasoning under uncertainty. The behavior of several Bayesian, linear mode…
Conflict and Surprise: Heuristics for Model Revision
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
Any probabilistic model of a problem is based on assumptions which, if violated, invalidate the model. Users of probability based decision aids need to be alerted when cases arise…
Bayesian Meta-Reasoning: Determining Model Adequacy from Within a Small World
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is devel…
Two Procedures for Compiling Influence Diagrams
Paul E. Lehner, Azar Sadigh
Two algorithms are presented for "compiling" influence diagrams into a set of simple decision rules. These decision rules define simple-to-execute, complete, consistent, and near-o…
Constructing Belief Networks to Evaluate Plans
Paul E. Lehner, Christopher Elsaesser, Scott A. Musman
This paper examines the problem of constructing belief networks to evaluate plans produced by an knowledge-based planner. Techniques are presented for handling various types of com…