368 citations · 532 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for
15 papers
Obeying the Order: Introducing Ordered Transfer Hyperparameter Optimisation
Sigrid Passano Hellan, Huibin Shen, François-Xavier Aubet +2
We introduce ordered transfer hyperparameter optimisation (OTHPO), a version of transfer learning for hyperparameter optimisation (HPO) where the tasks follow a sequential order. U…
Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression
David Salinas, Jacek Golebiowski, Aaron Klein +2
Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian p…
Criteria for Classifying Forecasting Methods
Tim Januschowski, Jan Gasthaus, Yuyang Wang +4
Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exem…
Multi-Objective Model Selection for Time Series Forecasting
Oliver Borchert, David Salinas, Valentin Flunkert +2
Research on time series forecasting has predominantly focused on developing methods that improve accuracy. However, other criteria such as training time or latency are critical in…
Meta-Forecasting by combining Global Deep Representations with Local Adaptation
Riccardo Grazzi, Valentin Flunkert, David Salinas +3
While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of rela…
Multi-objective Asynchronous Successive Halving
Robin Schmucker, Michele Donini, Muhammad Bilal Zafar +2
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is increasingly used to automatically tune the predictive performance (e.g., accuracy) of machine learning models. However, in a plethora of real-…
A multi-objective perspective on jointly tuning hardware and hyperparameters
David Salinas, Valerio Perrone, Olivier Cruchant +1
In addition to the best model architecture and hyperparameters, a full AutoML solution requires selecting appropriate hardware automatically. This can be framed as a multi-objectiv…
A resource-efficient method for repeated HPO and NAS problems
Giovanni Zappella, David Salinas, Cédric Archambeau
In this work we consider the problem of repeated hyperparameter and neural architecture search (HNAS). We propose an extension of Successive Halving that is able to leverage inform…
The Effectiveness of Discretization in Forecasting: An Empirical Study on Neural Time Series Models
Stephan Rabanser, Tim Januschowski, Valentin Flunkert +2
Time series modeling techniques based on deep learning have seen many advancements in recent years, especially in data-abundant settings and with the central aim of learning global…
Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey
Konstantinos Benidis, Syama Sundar Rangapuram, Valentin Flunkert +10
Deep learning based forecasting methods have become the methods of choice in many applications of time series prediction or forecasting often outperforming other approaches. Conseq…
High-Dimensional Multivariate Forecasting with Low-Rank Gaussian Copula Processes
David Salinas, Michael Bohlke-Schneider, Laurent Callot +2
Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or de…
A Quantile-based Approach for Hyperparameter Transfer Learning
David Salinas, Huibin Shen, Valerio Perrone
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular methodology to tune the hyperparameters of expensive black-box functions. Traditionally, BO focuses on a single task at a time and is not de…
GluonTS: Probabilistic Time Series Models in Python
Alexander Alexandrov, Konstantinos Benidis, Michael Bohlke-Schneider +10
We introduce Gluon Time Series (GluonTS, available at https://gluon-ts.mxnet.io), a library for deep-learning-based time series modeling. GluonTS simplifies the development of and…
Approximate Bayesian Inference in Linear State Space Models for Intermittent Demand Forecasting at Scale
Matthias Seeger, Syama Rangapuram, Yuyang Wang +4
We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform,…
DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks
David Salinas, Valentin Flunkert, Jan Gasthaus
Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail busin…