3 papers
stat.ME2025
Easily Computed Marginal Likelihoods for Multivariate Mixture Models Using the THAMES Estimator
Martin Metodiev, Nicholas J. Irons, Marie Perrot-Dockès +2
We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov…
stat.ME2024
Causally Sound Priors for Binary Experiments
Nicholas J. Irons, Carlos Cinelli
We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal infe…
stat.AP2024
US COVID-19 school closure was not cost-effective, but other measures were
Nicholas J. Irons, Adrian E. Raftery
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs o…