2 papers
stat.AP2025
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu +3
Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests…
cs.LG2025
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han +4
Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no frame…