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stat.ML2026
The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Framework for Classifier Probability Quality
Valery Manokhin
The Brier score conflates two distinct properties of probabilistic predictions: reliability (calibration error) and resolution (discriminatory power). We introduce the Manokhin Pro…
stat.ML2026
Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools
Valery Manokhin
We propose Conformal Seasonal Pools (CSP), a training-free probabilistic time-series forecaster that mixes same-season empirical draws with signed residual draws around a seasonal…