11 citations · 14 across the 3 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
A marginal moment matching approach for fitting endemic-epidemic models to underreported disease surveillance counts
Johannes Bracher, Leonhard Held
Count data are often subject to underreporting, especially in infectious disease surveillance. We propose an approximate maximum likelihood method to fit count time series models f…
Forecasting Based on Surveillance Data
Leonhard Held, Sebastian Meyer
Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemi…
p-Values for Credibility
Leonhard Held
Analysis of credibility is a reverse-Bayes technique that has been proposed by Matthews (2001) to overcome some of the shortcomings of significance tests. A significant result is d…
Fast and accurate Bayesian model criticism and conflict diagnostics using R-INLA
Egil Ferkingstad, Leonhard Held, Håvard Rue
Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly popular for realistic modelling and analysis of complex data. This trend is accompanied by the need for flexible, general, and computa…
Periodically stationary multivariate autoregressive models
Johannes Bracher, Leonhard Held
A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with…