activity
20102026
most citedCan You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift

924 citations · 1.8k across the 26 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

26 papers

cs.LG2026

Speed is Confidence

Joshua V. Dillon

Biological neural systems must be fast but are energy-constrained. Evolution's solution: act on the first signal. Winner-take-all circuits and time-to-first-spike coding implicitly…

cs.LG2024

Sample what you cant compress

Vighnesh Birodkar, Gabriel Barcik, James Lyon +3

For learned image representations, basic autoencoders often produce blurry results. Reconstruction quality can be improved by incorporating additional penalties such as adversarial…

math.NA2023

Sharp Taylor Polynomial Enclosures in One Dimension

Matthew Streeter, Joshua V. Dillon

It is often useful to have polynomial upper or lower bounds on a one-dimensional function that are valid over a finite interval, called a trust region. A classical way to produce p…

cs.LG2023

Federated Variational Inference: Towards Improved Personalization and Generalization

Elahe Vedadi, Joshua V. Dillon, Philip Andrew Mansfield +3

Conventional federated learning algorithms train a single global model by leveraging all participating clients' data. However, due to heterogeneity in client generative distributio…

cs.LG2022★ 2 cited

Automatically Bounding the Taylor Remainder Series: Tighter Bounds and New Applications

Matthew Streeter, Joshua V. Dillon

We present a new algorithm for automatically bounding the Taylor remainder series. In the special case of a scalar function , our algorithm takes as i…

cs.LG2022★ 5 cited

Weighted Ensemble Self-Supervised Learning

Yangjun Ruan, Saurabh Singh, Warren Morningstar +4

Ensembling has proven to be a powerful technique for boosting model performance, uncertainty estimation, and robustness in supervised learning. Advances in self-supervised learning…

stat.ML2020

VIB is Half Bayes

Alexander A Alemi, Warren R Morningstar, Ben Poole +2

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational I…

cs.LG2020★ 1 cited

PAC-Bayes: Narrowing the Empirical Risk Gap in the Misspecified Bayesian Regime

Warren R. Morningstar, Alexander A. Alemi, Joshua V. Dillon

The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However sin…

cs.LG2020★ 14 cited

Density of States Estimation for Out-of-Distribution Detection

Warren R. Morningstar, Cusuh Ham, Andrew G. Gallagher +3

Perhaps surprisingly, recent studies have shown probabilistic model likelihoods have poor specificity for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and often assign higher likelihoods to…

cs.LG2020★ 2 cited

Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference with Mixtures

Warren R. Morningstar, Sharad M. Vikram, Cusuh Ham +2

Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) is a useful tool for efficiently learning probabilistic models in machine learning. Generally approximate posteriors learned…

stat.CO2020★ 17 cited

tfp.mcmc: Modern Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tools Built for Modern Hardware

Junpeng Lao, Christopher Suter, Ian Langmore +7

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely regarded as one of the most important algorithms of the 20th century. Its guarantees of asymptotic convergence, stability, and estimator-v…

cs.LG2020★ 22 cited

The k-tied Normal Distribution: A Compact Parameterization of Gaussian Mean Field Posteriors in Bayesian Neural Networks

Jakub Swiatkowski, Kevin Roth, Bastiaan S. Veeling +7

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods…

cs.PL2020★ 11 cited

Joint Distributions for TensorFlow Probability

Dan Piponi, Dave Moore, Joshua V. Dillon

A central tenet of probabilistic programming is that a model is specified exactly once in a canonical representation which is usable by inference algorithms. We describe JointDistr…

cs.LG2020★ 35 cited

Hydra: Preserving Ensemble Diversity for Model Distillation

Linh Tran, Bastiaan S. Veeling, Kevin Roth +7

Ensembles of models have been empirically shown to improve predictive performance and to yield robust measures of uncertainty. However, they are expensive in computation and memory…

stat.ML2019★ 8 cited

Likelihood Ratios for Out-of-Distribution Detection

Jie Ren, Peter J. Liu, Emily Fertig +5

Discriminative neural networks offer little or no performance guarantees when deployed on data not generated by the same process as the training distribution. On such out-of-distri…

stat.ML2019★ 924 cited

Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift

Yaniv Ovadia, Emily Fertig, Jie Ren +6

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful…

stat.CO2019★ 65 cited

NeuTra-lizing Bad Geometry in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Using Neural Transport

Matthew Hoffman, Pavel Sountsov, Joshua V. Dillon +3

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a powerful algorithm for sampling from difficult-to-normalize posterior distributions. However, when the geometry of the posterior is unfavorable, it may…

cs.LG2018★ 62 cited

Uncertainty in the Variational Information Bottleneck

Alexander A. Alemi, Ian Fischer, Joshua V. Dillon

We present a simple case study, demonstrating that Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) can improve a network's classification calibration as well as its ability to detect out-…

stat.CO2018★ 1 cited

Quadrature Compound: An approximating family of distributions

Josh Dillon, Ian Langmore

Compound distributions allow construction of a rich set of distributions. Typically they involve an intractable integral. Here we use a quadrature approximation to that integral to…

cs.LG2017★ 244 cited

TensorFlow Distributions

Joshua V. Dillon, Ian Langmore, Dustin Tran +7

The TensorFlow Distributions library implements a vision of probability theory adapted to the modern deep-learning paradigm of end-to-end differentiable computation. Building on tw…

cs.LG2017★ 39 cited

Fixing a Broken ELBO

Alexander A. Alemi, Ben Poole, Ian Fischer +3

Recent work in unsupervised representation learning has focused on learning deep directed latent-variable models. Fitting these models by maximizing the marginal likelihood or evid…

cs.LG2016★ 346 cited

Deep Variational Information Bottleneck

Alexander A. Alemi, Ian Fischer, Joshua V. Dillon +1

We present a variational approximation to the information bottleneck of Tishby et al. (1999). This variational approach allows us to parameterize the information bottleneck model u…

cs.LG2012★ 6 cited

Statistical Translation, Heat Kernels and Expected Distances

Joshua Dillon, Yi Mao, Guy Lebanon +1

High dimensional structured data such as text and images is often poorly understood and misrepresented in statistical modeling. The standard histogram representation suffers from h…

cs.HC2012★ 1 cited

Cumulative Revision Map

Seungyeon Kim, Joshua V. Dillon, Guy Lebanon

Unlike static documents, version-controlled documents are edited by one or more authors over a certain period of time. Examples include large scale computer code, papers authored b…