4 papers · 1 filter
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…
The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…
Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates a…