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stat.AP2026

Auditing the Global Carbon Budget: Exploring the 2024--2025 Vintage Shift

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman

The Global Carbon Budget (GCB), the community reference dataset for the carbon cycle, is reissued annually. The 2025 release introduces several adjustments to the published series…

stat.AP2026

Continuous-time state space analysis of d18O, d13C, and CO2 in the Cenozoic Era

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Kathrine Larsen +2

We develop a continuous-time state-space framework for the joint reconstruction of three Cenozoic climate proxies, benthic foraminiferal d18O and d13C and atmospheric CO2, from irr…

stat.AP2026

Continuous-time state-space methods for d18O and d13C in the Cenozoic Era

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman +2

Time series analysis of d18O and d13C from benthic foraminifera for paleoclimatology poses significant challenges. The data span tens of millions of years, with sparse early record…

stat.AP2024

Estimating breakpoints between climate states in the Cenozoic Era

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman +1

This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. We…

stat.AP2024

A Regression-Based Approach to the CO2 Airborne Fraction: Enhancing Statistical Precision and Tackling Zero Emissions

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman

The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value ov…

stat.AP2024

A Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model for Probabilistic Analyses and Projections

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman

We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how…