97 citations · 230 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Cash Flow Entropy
Ulrich Kirchner, Simon Moolman
In this paper we aim to find a measure for the diversity of cash flows between agents in an economy. We argue that cash flows can be linked to probabilities of finding a currency u…
Measuring Portfolio Diversification
Ulrich Kirchner, Caroline Zunckel
In the market place, diversification reduces risk and provides protection against extreme events by ensuring that one is not overly exposed to individual occurrences. We argue that…
Managing Derivative Exposure
Ulrich Kirchner
We present an approach to derivative exposure management based on subjective and implied probabilities. We suggest to maximize the valuation difference subject to risk constraints…
A Subjective and Probabilistic Approach to Derivatives
Ulrich Kirchner
We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabili…
Market Implied Probability Distributions and Bayesian Skew Estimation
Ulrich Kirchner
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effec…
Multiverses and Cosmology: Philosophical Issues
W. R. Stoeger, G. F. R. Ellis, U. Kirchner
The idea of a multiverse -- an ensemble of universes or universe domains -- has received increasing attention in cosmology, both as the outcome of the originating process that gene…