9 papers
Anomalous Diffusion of Tropical Cyclones Observed in Huge Ensembles of Hindcasts
Abdoul R. Zeba, William D. Collins, Ankur Mahesh +5
We examine whether tropical cyclones (TCs) obey ordinary Brownian or anomalous diffusion using a huge ensemble (HENS) of hindcasts for summer 2023. Anomalous diffusion has been inf…
Examining Fast Radiatively Driven Responses Using Machine-Learning Weather Emulators
Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins, Travis A. O'Brien +10
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typic…
Surface temperature extremes produced by huge machine learning hindcasts of summer 2023
Mark Risser, Ankur Mahesh, Joshua North +6
The summer of 2023 was the second hottest on record, with numerous extreme heatwaves across the globe. Using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator machine learning (ML) weather mod…
Data-driven solar forecasting enables near-optimal economic decisions
Zhixiang Dai, Minghao Yin, Xuanhong Chen +27
Solar energy adoption is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. However, it remains difficult for many industrial and commercial actors to decide on whether they should adopt di…
Surya: Foundation Model for Heliophysics
Sujit Roy, Johannes Schmude, Rohit Lal +30
Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observator…
FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale
Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth, Ankur Mahesh +7
FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed…