6 papers · 1 filter
Anomalous Diffusion of Tropical Cyclones Observed in Huge Ensembles of Hindcasts
Abdoul R. Zeba, William D. Collins, Ankur Mahesh +5
We examine whether tropical cyclones (TCs) obey ordinary Brownian or anomalous diffusion using a huge ensemble (HENS) of hindcasts for summer 2023. Anomalous diffusion has been inf…
Examining Fast Radiatively Driven Responses Using Machine-Learning Weather Emulators
Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins, Travis A. O'Brien +10
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typic…
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +13
Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems pr…
Data-driven Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation using Neural Operators at Global Scale
Alberto Carpentieri, Jussi Leinonen, Jeff Adie +3
Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale…
A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models
Noah D. Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Jaideep Pathak +6
Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have em…
Modulated Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators for Temporal Interpolation of Weather Forecasts
Jussi Leinonen, Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth +1
Weather and climate data are often available at limited temporal resolution, either due to storage limitations, or in the case of weather forecast models based on deep learning, th…