activity
20162023
most citedDeep Distributional Time Series Models and the Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices

31 citations · 80 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

15 papers

stat.ML2023

Natural Gradient Hybrid Variational Inference with Application to Deep Mixed Models

Weiben Zhang, Michael Stanley Smith, Worapree Maneesoonthorn +1

Stochastic models with global parameters and latent variables are common, and for which variational inference (VI) is popular. However, existing methods are often either slow or in…

stat.ME2021

Implicit copula variational inference

Michael Stanley Smith, Rubén Loaiza-Maya

Key to effective generic, or "black-box", variational inference is the selection of an approximation to the target density that balances accuracy and speed. Copula models are promi…

stat.ME2021

Implicit Copulas: An Overview

Michael Stanley Smith

Implicit copulas are the most common copula choice for modeling dependence in high dimensions. This broad class of copulas is introduced and surveyed, including elliptical copulas,…

stat.ME2021★ 3 cited

Variational inference for cutting feedback in misspecified models

Xuejun Yu, David J. Nott, Michael Stanley Smith

Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use…

stat.ME2020★ 31 cited

Deep Distributional Time Series Models and the Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices

Nadja Klein, Michael Stanley Smith, David J. Nott

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with rich feature vectors of past values can provide accurate point forecasts for series that exhibit complex serial dependence. We propose two app…

stat.ME2020

Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Models with Many Latent Variables

Rubén Loaiza-Maya, Michael Stanley Smith, David J. Nott +1

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard app…