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cs.LG2026
Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems
Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti +5
Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of determinist…
stat.ME2026
Learned harmonic mean estimation of the marginal likelihood for multimodal posteriors with flow matching
Alicja Polanska, Jason D. McEwen
The marginal likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is a crucial quantity for Bayesian model comparison but its computation can be challenging for complex models, even in parameters spa…