16 citations · 40 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study
Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman +11
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the…
Tracking and tracing in the UK: a dynamic causal modelling study
Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman +9
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifica…
Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America
Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman +9
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of vira…
Estimating required 'lockdown' cycles before immunity to SARS-CoV-2: Model-based analyses of susceptible population sizes, 'S0', in seven European countries including the UK and Ireland
Rosalyn J. Moran, Erik D. Fagerholm, Maell Cullen +6
We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Tw…
Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19
Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman +9
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outc…